Modeling Ontario's Energy Future

WWF-Canada and the Pembina Institute commissioned a study by Portfire Associates, using an internationally respected computer simulation model developed by WADE (World Alliance for Decentralized Energy). Using current Ontario-based data on power use, population growth, economic output, power plant operating modes, capital and operating costs, related transmission costs, and pollution emissions, the WADE model allows direct comparisons between diverse power plant 'packages'.

This study relies primarily on the Ontario Power Authority's (OPA) own figures for the costs, emissions and capacity factors, as well as peak availability for various conservation and generation technologies. The principal changes to these assumptions were to use the updated cost estimates for refurbished nuclear plants produced by Ontario's Auditor General, and to use the actual historical performance of nuclear reactors as a guide to future performance (the OPA assumes that performance will improve dramatically over time). The inputs to the model have been cross-referenced with comparable renewable project performance and deployment rates in the U.S. and Europe, and the results from energy efficiency investments.

The OPA and Natural Resources Canada used the WADE model to assess the OPA's 2005 Supply Mix Advice report. The model has also been used to evaluate future energy supply mixes, in the UK, Scotland, Ireland, Portugal, the European Union, China, Brazil, Nigeria, Australia and the United States.